Thursday, January 20, 2011

Should I stay or should I go? - The ballad of Brian

So FF have opted to hold on to the devil they know!?

Its interesting in a way because it sets up Micheal Martin nicely for a come back. Its almost like creating a save point in a game. If they drop him now then he can come back after FF lose the election and lead the party, untainted by whatever is left to come out in the remaining 37 days.

I started to write this two days ago and yesterday 4 more ministers resigned, including Mary Harney. The remaining ministers will cover the vacant posts until the election. As we speak tweeters are claiming a lot of huddles in Leinster house and  the possibility of a further heave against the Taoiseach tonight (20th Jan).

The reality is that a heave like this is academic in terms of getting the country back on track. FF will lose the election. The question for them is what changes they can make today to minimize the damage.
If they think that changes will be effective then we will probably see some change in the near future (i.e. removing Cowen). If they think its a lost cause regardless of what they do, then Cowen will be the main candidate for this general election. When they fail Cowen and more of the frontbenchers will step down, FF will do a house cleaning exercise and give some of the younger members a go, then 4 years from now they will have some chance of winning or becoming a minority partner in a coalition government.

The next 36 hours will definitely be interesting....

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