Big day today for Europe - Greek Austerity Vote

Its a big day today for Europe.
I know its a big day for Greece but its potentially a pivotal day for Ireland as well.
If the Greeks do not vote through the austerity measures then they have as good as defaulted. At that point it makes more sense for them to leave the single currency. That way they can set their interest rates, devalue their currency and address some of their problems without the straightjacket they are in now.
Notice I say leave the single currency. Their is no pressure on them to leave the common market.
If they do vote in favor then I can only imagine that the streets of Athens would be a no-go zone for the next week.

For Ireland ( a country that was more than willing not to blindly accept Europe in two referendums) this could be a big moment. If Greece defaults then we will be in the firing line along with Portugal as the next to go down.
And with Greece blazing a trail (particularly if they leave the single currency)then we have a precedent to play with. It could strengthen our bargaining position against Europe and force the ECB into accepting a policy of restructuring. Of course if we are allowed then we may be in technical default as well.

If Greece accepts the Austerity measures then we will continue to kick the can down the road, but I don't see how it helps all of us in the long run. The problem remains in place, to be born by taxpayers that are rapidly running out of patience. If Greece does accept Austerity then it will be at the expense of voters in other countries; and those whose economies are relatively sound but experiencing cuts and unemployment may lose patience with the process. Indeed that could easily become an election platform for the opposition.

Ending this post prematurely as the vote is on right now: 20 For / 18 Against so far!

Update: Motion in Favour passed by 4 votes. Will be interesting to see the counterfactuals in years to come

Should I stay or should I go? - The ballad of Brian

So FF have opted to hold on to the devil they know!?

Its interesting in a way because it sets up Micheal Martin nicely for a come back. Its almost like creating a save point in a game. If they drop him now then he can come back after FF lose the election and lead the party, untainted by whatever is left to come out in the remaining 37 days.

I started to write this two days ago and yesterday 4 more ministers resigned, including Mary Harney. The remaining ministers will cover the vacant posts until the election. As we speak tweeters are claiming a lot of huddles in Leinster house and  the possibility of a further heave against the Taoiseach tonight (20th Jan).

The reality is that a heave like this is academic in terms of getting the country back on track. FF will lose the election. The question for them is what changes they can make today to minimize the damage.
If they think that changes will be effective then we will probably see some change in the near future (i.e. removing Cowen). If they think its a lost cause regardless of what they do, then Cowen will be the main candidate for this general election. When they fail Cowen and more of the frontbenchers will step down, FF will do a house cleaning exercise and give some of the younger members a go, then 4 years from now they will have some chance of winning or becoming a minority partner in a coalition government.

The next 36 hours will definitely be interesting....