Its a big day today for Europe.
I know its a big day for Greece but its potentially a pivotal day for Ireland as well.
If the Greeks do not vote through the austerity measures then they have as good as defaulted. At that point it makes more sense for them to leave the single currency. That way they can set their interest rates, devalue their currency and address some of their problems without the straightjacket they are in now.
Notice I say leave the single currency. Their is no pressure on them to leave the common market.
If they do vote in favor then I can only imagine that the streets of Athens would be a no-go zone for the next week.
For Ireland ( a country that was more than willing not to blindly accept Europe in two referendums) this could be a big moment. If Greece defaults then we will be in the firing line along with Portugal as the next to go down.
And with Greece blazing a trail (particularly if they leave the single currency)then we have a precedent to play with. It could strengthen our bargaining position against Europe and force the ECB into accepting a policy of restructuring. Of course if we are allowed then we may be in technical default as well.
If Greece accepts the Austerity measures then we will continue to kick the can down the road, but I don't see how it helps all of us in the long run. The problem remains in place, to be born by taxpayers that are rapidly running out of patience. If Greece does accept Austerity then it will be at the expense of voters in other countries; and those whose economies are relatively sound but experiencing cuts and unemployment may lose patience with the process. Indeed that could easily become an election platform for the opposition.
Ending this post prematurely as the vote is on right now: 20 For / 18 Against so far!
Update: Motion in Favour passed by 4 votes. Will be interesting to see the counterfactuals in years to come
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