Afraid I've been lazy the last 2 weeks.
Actually I've been sick with the man flu for the last 4 days, and was at a stag party the week before. (I see no connection!)
I have been active though so expect some bursts of updates next week around beers, Prague and Politics
As for the Election:
The outcome was easily predicted. All of the posturing now is disappointing and I am a little concerned by the looks of smugness from FG are worrying. Like I said before. The 25% vaccum of votes left by FF had to be filled somehow. As for the Wipeout, FF will be above 20% next election and in danger of becoming a real coalition option next time round.
I feel sorry for the independents. They fought hard and have won...nothing. No real power, no legislative authority. I think many of the new ones will do a George Lee and quit because they are frustrated by the glacier like pace of change.
FG Labour
Lets see what happens. I have a feeling the departmental briefings are going to scare some of them and there will be a lot of "look at what FF did the country". This will fly for a while but eventually they will have to start solving the problems in front of them. Because if they can't make a dent themselves then they aren't any better than the outgoing administration.
Thats all for now, The virus is still at work and my mind is not using english properly
Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts
Friday, March 4, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Election update 3rd February 2011
The president dissolved the Dail on Tuesday and the election date is set for February 25th.
This is more of a summary than anything else since my last post a few days ago.
Sources are "meet the leader" podcasts from NewsTalk
Jobs
The Labour party has come out with a €500 million recommendation for jobs which sounds remarkably like FF's €500 million smart economy fund.
FG - TBA
Croke Park
FG and Labour have also said that they won't renegotiate the Croke park agreement but expect productivity gains, redundancies and natural attrition. I assume FF won't want to renegotiate the Croke Park deal.
Income Tax
FG said they won't raise income tax
Labour - TBA
Privatization
Labour - not against selling off bodies but hasn't listed any ones that it wants to
FF- Much the same, prefers to retain strategic interest
Residential property tax
Labour want to exempt the tax on the primary residence, elimination of reliefs (section 23)
FG - TBA
FF -Favours site value tax
Healthcare
FG - Abolish the HSE, set up Dutch FairCare over 5 years
Labour - TBA
FF - Would not chance HSE
Education
FG - Free third level, 30% contribution over 10 years after graduation
Labour - NA
FF - need to cut costs, loan system (Australian system)
The Bailout
FG - Will renegotiate on interest rate, constitutional referendum on budget targets
Labour - Will renegotiate on interest and duration, say they never signed up in the first place
FF - NA but I guess either renegotiate or hold.
Additional comments
Labour have a "digital Ireland" platform which is all about broadband roll out. I don't want to seem arrogant here but is this really an issue? I understand that in rural areas broadband it probably is but it seems to me that there is plenty of broadband packages available.
Fianna Fail have now announced their front bench with nobody particularly special included. FF want to abolish the Seanad and suggest being able to appoint non-Oireachtas members as ministers. Its funny to see Willie O'Dea back, Proves he's a wily operator, Get canned just early enough so that no one really remembers him too painfully. His banishment to the political backwaters has worked quite well.
Looking at Micheal Martin I think he is a clever guy, He is clean enough to get some votes in this election and reduce the available voting space for the rest - shrink the Governments majority. It wouldn't surprise me if he tried to promote independents to further erode majorities.
Electoral strategy
FG and Labour are simple, get as many seats as possible and either be the majority party in coalition or single party government. According to recent polls FG would be the majority partner, and rumor is that FG will give up an extra ministry to get their hands on the Finance portfolio.
FF are of course trying to get as many votes as possible, but their outcome is different. Every % that goes to them or independents/ Sinn Fein / Green party / Others is a reduction in the governments majority and puts more pressure on an FG / Labour Coalition Government. If FF can get between 16% and 20%, Sinn Fein and the Greens get 10% between them and the Independents get another 10% that only leaves 60% between FG and Labour. It puts them in opposition during a difficult time (which is the place to be) and gives them 4 years to rebuild the party, mostly with a "lower taxes, small Government platform" next time round.
Latest MRBI / Irish Times Poll
FG 33%
Labour 24%
Fianna Fail 15%
Sinn Fein 12%
Remainder - 16%
This is more of a summary than anything else since my last post a few days ago.
Sources are "meet the leader" podcasts from NewsTalk
Jobs
The Labour party has come out with a €500 million recommendation for jobs which sounds remarkably like FF's €500 million smart economy fund.
FG - TBA
Croke Park
FG and Labour have also said that they won't renegotiate the Croke park agreement but expect productivity gains, redundancies and natural attrition. I assume FF won't want to renegotiate the Croke Park deal.
Income Tax
FG said they won't raise income tax
Labour - TBA
Privatization
Labour - not against selling off bodies but hasn't listed any ones that it wants to
FF- Much the same, prefers to retain strategic interest
Residential property tax
Labour want to exempt the tax on the primary residence, elimination of reliefs (section 23)
FG - TBA
FF -Favours site value tax
Healthcare
FG - Abolish the HSE, set up Dutch FairCare over 5 years
Labour - TBA
FF - Would not chance HSE
Education
FG - Free third level, 30% contribution over 10 years after graduation
Labour - NA
FF - need to cut costs, loan system (Australian system)
The Bailout
FG - Will renegotiate on interest rate, constitutional referendum on budget targets
Labour - Will renegotiate on interest and duration, say they never signed up in the first place
FF - NA but I guess either renegotiate or hold.
Additional comments
Labour have a "digital Ireland" platform which is all about broadband roll out. I don't want to seem arrogant here but is this really an issue? I understand that in rural areas broadband it probably is but it seems to me that there is plenty of broadband packages available.
Fianna Fail have now announced their front bench with nobody particularly special included. FF want to abolish the Seanad and suggest being able to appoint non-Oireachtas members as ministers. Its funny to see Willie O'Dea back, Proves he's a wily operator, Get canned just early enough so that no one really remembers him too painfully. His banishment to the political backwaters has worked quite well.
Looking at Micheal Martin I think he is a clever guy, He is clean enough to get some votes in this election and reduce the available voting space for the rest - shrink the Governments majority. It wouldn't surprise me if he tried to promote independents to further erode majorities.
Electoral strategy
FG and Labour are simple, get as many seats as possible and either be the majority party in coalition or single party government. According to recent polls FG would be the majority partner, and rumor is that FG will give up an extra ministry to get their hands on the Finance portfolio.
FF are of course trying to get as many votes as possible, but their outcome is different. Every % that goes to them or independents/ Sinn Fein / Green party / Others is a reduction in the governments majority and puts more pressure on an FG / Labour Coalition Government. If FF can get between 16% and 20%, Sinn Fein and the Greens get 10% between them and the Independents get another 10% that only leaves 60% between FG and Labour. It puts them in opposition during a difficult time (which is the place to be) and gives them 4 years to rebuild the party, mostly with a "lower taxes, small Government platform" next time round.
Latest MRBI / Irish Times Poll
FG 33%
Labour 24%
Fianna Fail 15%
Sinn Fein 12%
Remainder - 16%
Friday, January 28, 2011
Election commentary - 27th Jan
Today has been relatively quiet with a light skirmish between Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin. Martin challenged Enda to a 3 way debate between FF, Labour and FG. Enda rejected but said he would engage in a 5 way between the three above plus Sinn Fein and the Green party.
Personally I think this is a smart move on FG's side. They probably suspect that Martin might out talk Kenny on the issues as would Eamon Gilmore most likely. Instead they probably want to bring 2 extra targets into the fray to split the debate. Let the others battle it out between them. FF and the other 2 smaller parties might actually eat into some of Labour's votes. If its a 3 way and public speaking is the objective then Kenny will lose ground to Martin and Gilmore. By making it a 5 way he may lose less ground....
The only other item of note was Bertie Aherns last few moments outside the Dail being heckled by People before Profit. I have to say his regrets over the Bertie Bowl and comments that someone should have told him what was happening in the banks makes me wonder where that legendary charm and incisiveness has gone. While I want to see him made accountable for his part in the bust, I am beginning to wonder if the delusion is not just ego, maybe its a medical issue.....
Personally I think this is a smart move on FG's side. They probably suspect that Martin might out talk Kenny on the issues as would Eamon Gilmore most likely. Instead they probably want to bring 2 extra targets into the fray to split the debate. Let the others battle it out between them. FF and the other 2 smaller parties might actually eat into some of Labour's votes. If its a 3 way and public speaking is the objective then Kenny will lose ground to Martin and Gilmore. By making it a 5 way he may lose less ground....
The only other item of note was Bertie Aherns last few moments outside the Dail being heckled by People before Profit. I have to say his regrets over the Bertie Bowl and comments that someone should have told him what was happening in the banks makes me wonder where that legendary charm and incisiveness has gone. While I want to see him made accountable for his part in the bust, I am beginning to wonder if the delusion is not just ego, maybe its a medical issue.....
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Should I stay or should I go? - The ballad of Brian
So FF have opted to hold on to the devil they know!?
Its interesting in a way because it sets up Micheal Martin nicely for a come back. Its almost like creating a save point in a game. If they drop him now then he can come back after FF lose the election and lead the party, untainted by whatever is left to come out in the remaining 37 days.
I started to write this two days ago and yesterday 4 more ministers resigned, including Mary Harney. The remaining ministers will cover the vacant posts until the election. As we speak tweeters are claiming a lot of huddles in Leinster house and the possibility of a further heave against the Taoiseach tonight (20th Jan).
The reality is that a heave like this is academic in terms of getting the country back on track. FF will lose the election. The question for them is what changes they can make today to minimize the damage.
If they think that changes will be effective then we will probably see some change in the near future (i.e. removing Cowen). If they think its a lost cause regardless of what they do, then Cowen will be the main candidate for this general election. When they fail Cowen and more of the frontbenchers will step down, FF will do a house cleaning exercise and give some of the younger members a go, then 4 years from now they will have some chance of winning or becoming a minority partner in a coalition government.
The next 36 hours will definitely be interesting....
Its interesting in a way because it sets up Micheal Martin nicely for a come back. Its almost like creating a save point in a game. If they drop him now then he can come back after FF lose the election and lead the party, untainted by whatever is left to come out in the remaining 37 days.
I started to write this two days ago and yesterday 4 more ministers resigned, including Mary Harney. The remaining ministers will cover the vacant posts until the election. As we speak tweeters are claiming a lot of huddles in Leinster house and the possibility of a further heave against the Taoiseach tonight (20th Jan).
The reality is that a heave like this is academic in terms of getting the country back on track. FF will lose the election. The question for them is what changes they can make today to minimize the damage.
If they think that changes will be effective then we will probably see some change in the near future (i.e. removing Cowen). If they think its a lost cause regardless of what they do, then Cowen will be the main candidate for this general election. When they fail Cowen and more of the frontbenchers will step down, FF will do a house cleaning exercise and give some of the younger members a go, then 4 years from now they will have some chance of winning or becoming a minority partner in a coalition government.
The next 36 hours will definitely be interesting....
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