Election update 3rd February 2011

The president dissolved the Dail on Tuesday and the election date is set for February 25th.
This is more of a summary than anything else since my last post a few days ago.
Sources are "meet the leader" podcasts from NewsTalk

Jobs

The Labour party has come out with a €500 million recommendation for jobs which sounds remarkably like FF's €500 million smart economy fund.
FG - TBA

Croke Park
FG and Labour have also said that they won't renegotiate the Croke park agreement but expect productivity gains, redundancies and natural attrition. I assume FF won't want to renegotiate the Croke Park deal.

Income Tax
FG said they won't raise income tax
Labour - TBA

Privatization
Labour - not against selling off bodies but hasn't listed any ones that it wants to
FF- Much the same, prefers to retain strategic interest

Residential property tax
Labour want to exempt the tax on the primary residence, elimination of reliefs (section 23)
FG - TBA
FF -Favours site value tax

Healthcare
FG - Abolish the HSE, set up Dutch FairCare over 5 years
Labour - TBA
FF -  Would not chance HSE

Education
FG - Free third level, 30% contribution over 10 years after graduation
Labour - NA
FF - need to cut costs, loan system (Australian system)


The Bailout
FG - Will renegotiate on interest rate, constitutional referendum on budget targets
Labour - Will renegotiate on interest and duration, say they never signed up in the first place
FF -  NA but I guess either renegotiate or hold.

Additional comments
Labour have a "digital Ireland" platform which is all about broadband roll out. I don't want to seem arrogant here but is this really an issue? I understand that in rural areas broadband it probably is but it seems to me that there is plenty of broadband packages available.

Fianna Fail have now announced their front bench with nobody particularly special included. FF want to abolish the Seanad and suggest being able to appoint non-Oireachtas members as ministers. Its funny to see Willie O'Dea back, Proves he's a wily operator, Get canned just early enough so that no one really remembers him too painfully. His banishment to the political backwaters has worked quite well.
Looking at Micheal Martin I think he is a clever guy, He is clean enough to get some votes in this election and reduce the available voting space for the rest - shrink the Governments majority. It wouldn't surprise me  if he  tried to promote independents to further erode majorities.

Electoral strategy
FG and Labour are simple, get as many seats as possible and either be the majority party in coalition or single party government. According to recent polls FG would be the majority partner, and rumor is that FG will give up an extra ministry to get their hands on the Finance portfolio.

FF are of course trying to get as many votes as possible, but their outcome is different. Every % that goes to them or independents/ Sinn Fein / Green party / Others is a reduction in the governments majority and puts more pressure on an FG / Labour Coalition Government. If FF can get between 16% and 20%, Sinn Fein and the Greens get 10% between them and the Independents get another 10% that only leaves 60% between FG and Labour. It puts them in opposition during a difficult time (which is the place to be) and gives them 4 years to rebuild the party, mostly with a "lower taxes, small Government platform" next time round.

Latest MRBI / Irish Times Poll
FG 33%
Labour 24%
Fianna Fail 15%
Sinn Fein 12%
Remainder - 16%