March Beer Post

Sorry Folks
Haven't been many beer posts in a while. I have been drinking I just haven't been posting due to laziness!
So let me make it up to you!

Weissenofer Bonator
The find of the pack by far, beautfiul Brown colour, Caramel, chocolate and pine, smooth with no bitter after taste. 8.2% hit me pretty hard!

Helvick Gold
From the Dun Garvan Brewery, Unfortunately I don't have many notes on this one, cloudy in the glass with a slightly citrusy flavour, worth a look, not least because its Irish

Goose Island - Christmas Ale
Wonderful flavour in the best Winter beer tradition. Dark but not black in the glass, Strong flavour with rich caramel tones.

Youngs Double Chocolate Stout
I had expected this to have either a bitter black chocolate taste or a smooth creamy milk chocolate taste but I was wrong on both counts. The chocolate flavour is mild and a bit watery in the finish. If you're expecting a hot chocolate I wouldn't go for this. If you find something like that, let me know!

Fuel Economy and Driving to work

In a moment of idleness last week I started working out how much my car was costing me per month. I’m thinking of trading up next year; hopefully get something more fuel efficient.

For the most part I drive about 750 miles a month, which is made up for trips from my home in Drumcondra to Cherrywood. Some months I drive about 600 miles (when I travel abroad) and when I have to work in Limerick the number can go up to 900 miles. My car gets about 6.5 miles to the litre, or 390 miles to a full tank, which hardly makes it a green-mobile. At €1.50 a litre I’m spending about €173 a month on petrol. The drive to and from Cherrywood is about 25 miles round trip.

Fuel is not the only cost I incur though. My insurance is about €600 euro a year. My car tax is €324 a year and I also have the AA at €210 a year. I expect to spend around €300 on maintenance and repair over the year as well.

There is one more cost that is less straight forward. Strictly speaking the cash isn’t going out every month. In fact the cash has already been paid out. Its an opportunity cost; what I could have done with the money if I hadn’t tied it up in the car. I know this sounds like a fuzzy concept; I’ve already paid the money right? But here’s the thing, If I sell the car right now I might get €4000, but If I hold on to the car till next year like I plan to it might be worth €3000. In a way I am renting the car or slowly surrendering value day by day. I figure that the car is worth about €1000 a year. If I had a more expensive car then it would be worth more.

So having worked out all these costs I can look at the three scenarios and work out how much money I’m spending a month. I can also calculate a proxy for “convenience” i.e. The value I am paying to have the car for average use. I can then compare this to my utility value – How much I am willing to pay for this privilege. If my utility is greater than that of convenience then I should keep using the car but if its less then I should use substitutes I.e. The DART, where they exist.
The easiest way to summarise the options is with a table.

As you can see the more miles I do the lower the total cost, but it also shows that the cost of having the car under each scenario is way over the cost for the same trip to Cherrywood on the train.
In reality I'm paying an average of a 61% premium or €7.67 to use the car on my round trip to and from Cherrywood.
I know I said I'd calculate my utility value but I actually haven't a clue how to (If anyone wants to suggest how to do this I'm happy to try it) I just know that a 61% premium feels too high for me though. I suspect that if it was raining when I got up I'd prefer to take the car but with the summer coming up hopefully I'll think of my pocket and take the train!

Funday

Not a major post for the weekend.
Two things that stand out.
I've been resisting shaving / growing a goatee for the last two weeks with mixed results. Amazingly there is a lot more grey and a lot less ginger than the last time 10 years ago, I'll try to put up a photo to compare shortly.

The other thing I did was to put up a shelf for the LAK. It was a cheap one from Woodies, but it put me up against the 2 years of selling DIY to actually prove that it was easy to do.
What was bizarre is that the 2 supports were definitely not level and yet the shelf is!

No Posts for a while!

Afraid I've been lazy the last 2 weeks.
Actually I've been sick with the man flu for the last 4 days, and was at a stag party the week before. (I see no connection!)
I have been active though so expect some bursts of updates next week around beers, Prague and Politics

As for the Election:
The outcome was easily predicted. All of the posturing now is disappointing and I am a little concerned by the looks of smugness from FG are worrying. Like I said before. The 25% vaccum of votes left by FF had to be filled somehow. As for the Wipeout, FF will be above 20% next election and in danger of becoming a real coalition option next time round.
I feel sorry for the independents. They fought hard and have won...nothing. No real power, no legislative authority. I think many of the new ones will do a George Lee and quit because they are frustrated by the glacier like pace of change.

FG Labour
Lets see what happens. I have a feeling the departmental briefings are going to scare some of them and there will be a lot of "look at what FF did the country". This will fly for a while but eventually they will have to start solving the problems in front of them. Because if they can't make a dent themselves then they aren't any better  than the outgoing administration.

Thats all for now, The virus is still at work and my mind is not using english properly

Election Update 15-02-2011 - Deep Concerns about the games being played with jobs

I listened to the debate last night and like most people came away with the feeling that what I heard was about point scoring rather than serious discussion.

Labour and the Retail Sector
Labour's focus on the retail sector for jobs is worrying me. Jobs in the retail sector have a wide level of access - many people are capable of doing these jobs (as compared to say programming, or science or nursing) and they are definitely a boon for lower skilled workers. My concern is the reason why stores hire staff. The common view seems to be that business rates and rents are too high and that's probably true, but how much is that reducing the numbers employed? Back in the boom the same rents and rates were in place, but we had higher employment in the retail trade - why?
We are now at the employment level of 2005-2006 for retail according to CSO statistics
Demand, confidence and credit in the economy are the answers:

• More people working right across the economy in every sector
• More disposable income per person
• Easier access to credit via cards, loans, low(er) interest rates.
• Greater confidence around getting and retaining jobs, wage growth, debt repayment

Thus people were spending, and that spending drove jobs in the retail sector.

I worked in Brown Thomas for a year and a half in their TV and HiFi department back in 2000. It was a great time because there was so much money in the economy, combined with shiny new technologies like, flat screens, wide screens, LCD's MP3 players and play station 2. During the week there were about 4 people on the floor plus a manager, but at the weekend that would go up to about 8 people. Often times the full time people would work a Saturday to make up for the slim pickings during the week. And this staffing experience is common to many retail operations - If there isn't demand you don't need people on the floor.

Right now there is over 200% more people unemployed in the economy (13.5% vs 4.5% for the same period in 2005). That's a lot less disposable income, fewer people willing to spend on their credit cards and most importantly, a tremendous lack of confidence in the short to medium term income prospects. If retailers don't see changes in peoples short term confidence then why would they hire in the first place? If I dont think my wages are going to rise in the near term (or worse still that I may lose my job) then I am not willing to make unnecessary large purchases taht require credit in case I can't pay them off. I understand Labours reason for targeting jobs in the retail sector, its an area where low skilled workers could re-enter the workforce quickly but creating the reason for retailers to hire in the first place is much more important.

Just as an addendum:
The current employment laws around working while on the social welfare would be a far better place to start.
People on social welfare can work up to 20 hours per week without endangering their entitlements, however it must be the same 20 hours every week. Most people who work in stores (or in other places like cinema's leisure centres, call centres etc) will tell you that most of the time their hours vary to match busy times, employee holidays and specific initiatives. There are very few of these jobs that can support this type of inflexibility in their employees. If you took away this outdated condition then you could get people back into part time work and  reduce the burden on the state. In addition you would make them feel like they are contributing and ensure that their skills are not eroded over time.

Election Update 10th February 2011 - Lennys gambit

Well
All the parties have been setting out their manifestos for the last week and a half.

The prime time debate went well, the quality of argument was high and both leaders acquitted themselves well.
Martin was much more ferocious on the attack, which makes sense since he cannot defend the record of the government. Gilmore came across well though in my opinion, "labours way not Frankfurts way" is childish rhetoric when Europe can simply say "No More Money". The other stage show was in Leitrim where Enda addressed probably the smallest meeting in the country and got heckled by what probably was a plant.




 The other news of note was Alan Dukes telling us that Anglo need another €15bn. Lenny has quite smartly turned around and said that he no longer has a mandate to inject capital into the banks so that the incoming government will need to do that. I think this is a brilliant tactic on his part for two reasons:

• He actually doesn't have a mandate anymore
• It puts it up to all of them as a practical situation - What are you going to do?

Any of them who say we'll stop paying the banks etc are now in a position to do so, those who are just spouting rhetoric will have to reveal their true position, or at least  give a nod that FF had no other choice.


Me and the LAK had quite a debate on this today. She thinks he is a scumbag for having us in this position in the firstplace (TRUE) and is now being sneaky about it - which I disagree with.
I promise that I wont vote FF this time but you have to have a grudging admiration for their tactics!

Election update 3rd February 2011

The president dissolved the Dail on Tuesday and the election date is set for February 25th.
This is more of a summary than anything else since my last post a few days ago.
Sources are "meet the leader" podcasts from NewsTalk

Jobs

The Labour party has come out with a €500 million recommendation for jobs which sounds remarkably like FF's €500 million smart economy fund.
FG - TBA

Croke Park
FG and Labour have also said that they won't renegotiate the Croke park agreement but expect productivity gains, redundancies and natural attrition. I assume FF won't want to renegotiate the Croke Park deal.

Income Tax
FG said they won't raise income tax
Labour - TBA

Privatization
Labour - not against selling off bodies but hasn't listed any ones that it wants to
FF- Much the same, prefers to retain strategic interest

Residential property tax
Labour want to exempt the tax on the primary residence, elimination of reliefs (section 23)
FG - TBA
FF -Favours site value tax

Healthcare
FG - Abolish the HSE, set up Dutch FairCare over 5 years
Labour - TBA
FF -  Would not chance HSE

Education
FG - Free third level, 30% contribution over 10 years after graduation
Labour - NA
FF - need to cut costs, loan system (Australian system)


The Bailout
FG - Will renegotiate on interest rate, constitutional referendum on budget targets
Labour - Will renegotiate on interest and duration, say they never signed up in the first place
FF -  NA but I guess either renegotiate or hold.

Additional comments
Labour have a "digital Ireland" platform which is all about broadband roll out. I don't want to seem arrogant here but is this really an issue? I understand that in rural areas broadband it probably is but it seems to me that there is plenty of broadband packages available.

Fianna Fail have now announced their front bench with nobody particularly special included. FF want to abolish the Seanad and suggest being able to appoint non-Oireachtas members as ministers. Its funny to see Willie O'Dea back, Proves he's a wily operator, Get canned just early enough so that no one really remembers him too painfully. His banishment to the political backwaters has worked quite well.
Looking at Micheal Martin I think he is a clever guy, He is clean enough to get some votes in this election and reduce the available voting space for the rest - shrink the Governments majority. It wouldn't surprise me  if he  tried to promote independents to further erode majorities.

Electoral strategy
FG and Labour are simple, get as many seats as possible and either be the majority party in coalition or single party government. According to recent polls FG would be the majority partner, and rumor is that FG will give up an extra ministry to get their hands on the Finance portfolio.

FF are of course trying to get as many votes as possible, but their outcome is different. Every % that goes to them or independents/ Sinn Fein / Green party / Others is a reduction in the governments majority and puts more pressure on an FG / Labour Coalition Government. If FF can get between 16% and 20%, Sinn Fein and the Greens get 10% between them and the Independents get another 10% that only leaves 60% between FG and Labour. It puts them in opposition during a difficult time (which is the place to be) and gives them 4 years to rebuild the party, mostly with a "lower taxes, small Government platform" next time round.

Latest MRBI / Irish Times Poll
FG 33%
Labour 24%
Fianna Fail 15%
Sinn Fein 12%
Remainder - 16%